Former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Iowa caucus, NBC News reports.
The greater question is who will finish second and by how much. Both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis poll in the upper teens, dividing the non-Trump vote.
Tonight’s caucus is the first formal indicator of the GOP’s 2024 position. If Trump gets more than 50% of caucusgoers, it narrows the possibility that even if the non-Trump vote coalesces around one contender, that candidate would struggle.
However, if Trump falls short of 50%, a competitor who can unite the party, like Haley or DeSantis, may defeat him in a nomination contest.
Most caucusgoers want a federal abortion ban.
NBC News' entrance survey revealed 59% of Iowa Republican caucus participants supported a “federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide.”
A federal law was opposed by 36% more respondents.
However, only 12% of caucusgoers indicated abortion was the most pressing US problem.
Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed a constitutional right to abortion for 50 years, was reversed by the Supreme Court in 2022. Individual states have had the right to prohibit or allow abortions since then.
Abortion rights have also divided Republicans in certain states.
Abortion rights supporters won ballot proposals in seven states, four of them Republican.
The re-election of Kentucky's governor, Democrats' control of both Virginia legislative chambers, and liberals' Wisconsin Supreme Court majority were all influenced by abortion rights.